Research · Accountability
A research desk is only as good as the things it would let prove it wrong. So we publish the exits in advance — the conditions that would break each call — and we track them live. Below the watch, a dated ledger of every revision we've made when the evidence moved. Credibility as an instrument, not a slogan.
The watch · what would change our mind
When a reading crosses its threshold, the call moves with it — and the change is logged below. Sources are on each linked instrument.
The ledger · revise in public
2026-06-26
Flagged the +4.06 divergence as a four-quarter (n=4) reading — directional, not a long-run signal — on Capex Watch, the Brief, and the homepage. Why: a four-point series can't support two-decimal confidence; the precision implied more than the data holds.
2026-06-26
Unified to a $1.4B run-rate depreciation step-up (6→5yr policy) plus a separate $920M one-time write-off, cited to Note 1 of the FY2025 10-K, across Capex Watch and the Brief. Why: the two pages had carried non-reconciling figures.
2026-06-26
The indicator pipeline is computed in Python, not "live through DuckDB"; we corrected the wording and published the underlying tables at /data with their accession numbers. Why: the original phrasing overstated the mechanism; the fix is to show the data.
2026-06-26
From "no one else is timing both clocks" to "others time one clock or the other; we hold both on a single scoreboard — with explicit falsifiers, revised in public." Why: the absolute claim contradicted our own sourcing.
This ledger is append-only. Each entry is a place we were less right than we wanted to be, fixed in the open. More on how we work →