Divergent Compute.AI Economic Think Tank

The Earnings Desk

What the build-out's own filings say — the day they say it.

Most coverage stops at the press release. We read the 10-Q and 10-K: the useful-life note that decides whether earnings are real, capex against the cash flow that funds it, and any new circular-financing commitments. Same day, sourced, falsifiable — and the divergence gauge advances a quarter in public each time.

Filing watch live — monitoring six names on SEC EDGAR; the clock starts the moment a 10-Q or 10-K posts.

The calendar

Next prints

The six names that move the build-out. Microsoft's is the marquee — its fiscal year-end 10-K carries the full PP&E useful-life disclosure, the heart of the depreciation thesis.

CompanyNext reportFilingStatus
MicrosoftMSFT~Jul 29, 2026 · FY Q410-K · year-end noteexpected
AlphabetGOOGL~Jul 28, 2026 · Q210-Qexpected
MetaMETA~Jul 29, 2026 · Q210-Qexpected
AmazonAMZN~Jul 30, 2026 · Q210-Qexpected
NvidiaNVDAAug 26, 2026 · Q2 FY2710-Qconfirmed
OracleORCLSep 14, 2026 · Q1 FY2710-Qconfirmed

The four late-July dates are confirmed by the companies roughly three weeks out and updated here then. Times are after the US close.

The watch list

What we're watching this window

Before a single print lands, the read is already scoped. For each name, the specific line items we pull the moment the filing posts — and the fragility indicator each one feeds.

Microsoft MSFTMarquee · FY 10-K

What the read pulls

  • The PP&E useful-life note — did server or network lives move again?
  • Depreciation run-rate versus the prior fiscal year
  • Capex as a share of operating cash flow
  • Azure AI backlog / remaining performance obligation

Feeds · Depreciation integrity · Capex-vs-demand

Alphabet GOOGLQ2 · 10-Q

What the read pulls

  • Full-year capex guide — raised again, or held?
  • Google Cloud backlog and its growth rate
  • Depreciation trend as custom-silicon capacity lands
  • Any change in server/network useful lives

Feeds · Capex-vs-demand · Organic demand

Meta METAQ2 · 10-Q

What the read pulls

  • Useful-life note — Meta already extended to ~5.5 yr; any further stretch?
  • Capex guide against free cash flow
  • The share of capex labelled AI/infrastructure
  • Depreciation run-rate versus the extended-life tailwind

Feeds · Depreciation integrity · Capex-vs-demand

Amazon AMZNThe canary · 10-Q

What the read pulls

  • Did the shortened 5-yr server life hold, revert, or shorten further?
  • Any new one-time accelerated depreciation or impairments
  • AWS capex against operating cash flow
  • Language on AI/ML obsolescence in the useful-life note

Feeds · Depreciation integrity · Capex-vs-demand

Nvidia NVDAQ2 FY27 · 10-Q

What the read pulls

  • Customer concentration in data-center revenue
  • Any equity stakes or vendor financing in the labs it sells to
  • Guidance and inventory/purchase commitments
  • Inputs that move the recycling ratio

Feeds · Circular financing · Demand durability

Oracle ORCLQ1 FY27 · 10-Q

What the read pulls

  • Remaining performance obligation — the backlog surge and who it's with
  • Capex ramp to build the committed capacity
  • Debt issued to fund the build-out
  • Concentration of the backlog in a few AI counterparties

Feeds · Circular financing · Financing runway

The method

How we read a print

Each name is two events — and the second is where the signal lives.

Event 1 · the release

The headline numbers

Capex, guidance, cloud/AI revenue and backlog from the press release and call. Feeds the capex-vs-demand read and the financing-runway math (capex as a share of operating cash flow). A same-day reaction.

Event 2 · the 10-Q / 10-K

The note most people skip

Days later, the filing posts: the PP&E useful-life note (did the life change this quarter?), the depreciation run-rate, impairments, debt issuance, and any new lab↔hyperscaler compute commitments. This is the distinctive read.

Latest reads

From the filings

Get the read the day it files

A same-day note when a hyperscaler posts its 10-Q or 10-K, plus the weekly Fragility Index reading. Sourced, no noise.